Time-series characterisation of cholera outbreaks and optimisation of oral cholera vaccine resource allocation in Africa, 2010–2023

Background

Cholera remains a major cause of epidemic disease in Africa, and the Global Task Force on Cholera Control (GTFCC) roadmap targets a 90% reduction in cholera mortality by 2030 through improved water and sanitation, surveillance and targeted oral cholera vaccine (OCV) use. Optimal allocation of a limited global OCV stock across countries with different transmission dynamics is a central operational question, yet quantitative, surveillance-based guidance is scarce.