From Shock to Disengagement: How Natural Disasters Reshape Politics in Low-Trust Democracies

Abstract As natural disasters become increasingly frequent under climate change, understanding how they reshape politics has become more urgent. This paper theorizes and examines the political consequences of natural disasters in an increasingly prevalent context: advanced democracies with low levels of political trust. We argue that when political trust is already weak, disasters act as performance shocks that further erode political confidence and disrupt conventional mechanisms of democratic accountability. Rather than rallying around incumbents or shifting support toward mainstream opposition parties, citizens may disengage from representative institutions and develop stronger anti-political attitudes. Using the case of the October 2024 floods in Valencia, Spain, and drawing on observational, experimental, and panel data, we show that highly exposed residents exhibit significantly lower levels of political trust and stronger populist attitudes. Electorally, this dissatisfaction translates primarily into persistent electoral demobilization, alongside suggestive evidence of increased support for the radical-right party VOX in the most severely affected areas.