Paris 2024 Olympic judo success: the role of Grand Slam performance, sex-based trajectories, and home advantage in the World Judo Tour

The World Judo Tour (WJT) is a critical series of competitions for accumulating ranking points and qualifying for Olympic Games. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between performance in the 2023-2024 WJT and medal success at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games, identifying which competitions are most strongly associated with Olympic outcomes, analyzing sex-based differences in competitive trajectories, and quantifying the Home Advantage (HA) effect. We analyzed the competitive history of 56 Olympic medalists (28 female and 28 male) across all weight categories. Results revealed a robust correlation between WJT success and Olympic performance: 98.2% of all Olympic medalists secured at least one Grand Slam medal (gold, silver, or bronze) during the 2023-2024 cycle, establishing the Grand Slam series as the primary and most consistent indicator associated with the Olympic podium (p ≤ 0.05 compared to other WJT events). A significant sex-based difference (p = 0.017) was observed in the total volume of pre-Olympic medals, with female medalists accumulating a significantly higher number of podium finishes (mean = 4.8 ± 2.2) than their male counterparts (mean = 3.4 ± 1.7). Furthermore, a HA effect was identified in Grand Slam events, with 18.35% of Grand Slam medals won in domestic competitions, an effect notably more pronounced in males (27.45%) than in females (10.34%). No significant differences in medal accumulation patterns were found across the unified weight categories (p = 0.479), indicating a universal competitive requirement for Olympic success. These findings provide essential sex-based insights for coaches and national federations to optimize competition planning, emphasizing consistent Grand Slam performance and the strategic benefits of hosting high-tier events as critical factors in Olympic preparation.