Predictive Preparedness and Recurrent Shock Reduction in Somalia: The Roles of Adaptive Governance and Institutional Fragmentation

Introduction

Somalia faces recurrent shocks including droughts, floods, conflict, and displacement that overwhelm governance systems and sustain reactive humanitarian responses. This quantitative cross-sectional study examines the associations between predictive preparedness, adaptive governance, institutional fragmentation, and recurrent shock reduction in Somalia, testing adaptive governance as a mediating mechanism and institutional fragmentation as a boundary condition.