Obstetrics and gynaecology
VBAC Success Prediction
Estimated probability of successful vaginal birth after caesarean.
VBAC Success Prediction calculator
Result
~64%
Moderate probability — detailed counselling
Simplified model. Metz-Saade VBAC score or eMBRACE calculator more precise.
How to use it
- 1
Key success factors. Prior vaginal birth (strongest), non-recurrent indication, spontaneous labour, BMI < 30.
- 2
Counselling. VBAC success ~72–75% overall. Risk of uterine rupture ~0.5%.
- 3
Use validated online calculators. MFMU Network VBAC calculator (maternal-fetal.net) gives personalised probability using regression model.
When to use it
- Planning mode of delivery with prior CS
- NICE CS2023: planned VBAC is appropriate for most women with single prior LSCS.
- Informed consent
- Discuss success probability, uterine rupture risk, and risks of elective repeat CS.
- Two prior CS
- Lower success rate (~65%), higher rupture risk — more individualised counselling required.
A reference for clinicians and students, not medical advice. A score supports a decision; it does not make one. Check every result against the patient in front of you and your local protocol.
At a glance
- Specialty
- Obstetrics and gynaecology
- Inputs
- 6
- Type
- Formula
