APPLICATION OF HOLT’S LINEAR METHOD IN THE CALCULATION OF FUTURE VALUES OF ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE FOR INDIA

This study uses annual time series data on MMR for India from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.7 and 0.1 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will drop to levels below 10 deaths per 100 000 live births by 2035. Therefore, we encourage authorities to attend to the major drivers of avoidable maternal deaths