CALCULATING ANNUAL MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE FOR GUINEA BISSAU USING THE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUE

This study uses annual time series data on MMR for Guinea Bissau from 1985 to 2023 to predict future trends of MMR over the period 2024 to 2035. The study utilizes Holt’s double exponential smoothing model. The optimal values of smoothing constants α and β are 0.6 and 0.5 respectively based on minimum MSE. The results of the study indicate that MMR will continue on a downward trend but still remain very high throughout the out of sample period. Therefore, we encourage authorities to adopt the suggested 5-fold policy prescription.