Abstract / Summary
Fu Min Xue,1,* Wei Ren Wang,1,* Lan Qing Shang,2 Guang Zhi Zhou,3 Si Wen Kang,3 Dong Xu Tai31The First Clinical College, Liaoning University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shenyang, Liaoning, People’s Republic of China; 2Ethics Office, Liaoning Provincial Institute of Traditional Chinese Medicine (The Second Affiliated Hospital of Liaoning University of Traditional Chinese Medicine), Shenyang, Liaoning, People’s Republic of China; 3Second Department of Orthopedics and Traumatology, The Affiliated Hospital of Liaoning University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shenyang, Liaoning, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Guang Zhi Zhou, Second Department of Orthopedics and Traumatology, The Affiliated Hospital of Liaoning University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shenyang, Liaoning, People’s Republic of China, Email arthur0603@foxmail.com; Dong Xu Tai, Second Department of Orthopedics and Traumatology, The Affiliated Hospital of Liaoning University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shenyang, Liaoning, People’s Republic of China, Email taidx050917@163.comBackground: This study assessed hip osteoarthritis (HOA) and knee osteoarthritis (KOA) burden attributable to the aggregate GBD category "Metabolic risks” among women of reproductive age, using GBD 2021 estimates from 1990 to 2021.Methods: We analyzed disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and years lived with disability (YLDs) for HOA and KOA in women aged 15– 49 years across 204 countries and territories, with stratification by age, Socio-demographic Index (SDI), and GBD region. We calculated absolute numbers, age-standardized rates (ASRs), and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs); performed decomposition analyses; and used ARIMA and damped Holt exponential-smoothing models to describe possible burden trajectories from 2022 to 2050.Results: From 1990 to 2021, global KOA DALYs attributable to metabolic risks increased from 118,483.85 to 342,005.11, an increase of approximately 188.7%, while the KOA ASR increased from 10.95 to 16.54 per 100,000, an increase of approximately 50.9% (EAPC 1.57%). HOA DALYs increased from 10,426.34 to 28,184.59, an increase of approximately 170.3%, while the HOA ASR increased from 0.93 to 1.37 per 100,000, an increase of approximately 47.0% (EAPC 1.32%). Both forecasting approaches suggested further increases through 2050, although the magnitude of the projected changes was model-dependent.Interpretation: The burden of HOA and KOA attributable to metabolic risks increased substantially among women of reproductive age, with marked geographic and SDI-related heterogeneity. These findings support consideration of metabolic risk management within existing women’s health and noncommunicable disease (NCD) services.Keywords: global burden of disease, osteoarthritis, reproductive age, women, metabolic risks, sociodemographic index, forecasting