Spatial Distribution, Environmental Associations and Geographical Mapping of Microscopy-confirmed Malaria Cases among Children under Five in Nigeria

Aims

This study assessed the prevalence and geographical distribution of microscopy-confirmed malaria among children aged 6–59 months in Nigeria, examined selected environmental associations and spatial clustering, modelled cluster-level malaria probability, and identified geographical areas with comparatively higher model-predicted probabilities. Study Design: Cross-sectional secondary analysis of nationally representative survey data integrated with environmental and geospatial datasets. Place and Duration of Study: Nigeria; analysis used data from the 2021 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Survey and environmental datasets corresponding to the survey period. Methodology: Data for 10,655 children from 567 survey clusters were analysed using survey-weighted prevalence estimation and complex-samples logistic regression. Cluster locations were linked with environmental data, and Local Moran’s I was used to identify statistically significant spatial clusters and outliers. Model-predicted probabilities were aggregated to cluster level and used to identify intervention-priority areas.