Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine
Meteorological predictors of dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence in Cilacap Regency, Indonesia: A time series analysis
By Khaidar Ali, Serius Miliyani Dwi Putri, Damairia Hayu Parmasari and 3 others.
Abstract
Objective
To analyze the nonlinear relationship between meteorological predictors and dengue hemorrhagic fever, and to quantify the meteorologically attributable fraction of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) during 2021-2025 in Cilacap Regency.
Methods
This ecological time series design used sequential three-stage analytical tools, including a cross-correlation function (CCF) analysis applied to identify lag structures, Granger causality within a vector autoregression (VAR) framework used to confirm directional temporal precedence, and a quasi-Poisson Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model (DLNM) with natural cubic spline crossbases over a 28-day lag window used to estimate the exposure-response relationship. Autoregressive terms alongside long-term trends and seasonal splines were incorporated to account for autocorrelation and potential confounding.
