Vaccines
Group A Streptococcus-Attributable Mortality and Disability in Asian Adults Aged 60 Years and Older: Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 and Projections to 2050
By Min Wang and Juebo Yu.
Abstract
Background
Group A Streptococcus (GAS) remains a leading cause of preventable mortality and disability among older adults, yet its long-term epidemiological trajectory in Asia’s rapidly ageing populations remains poorly characterised.
Methods
Data on GAS-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) among adults aged 60 years and older were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 (rei_id 630, all causes [cause_id 294]; within which the attributable burden at ages ≥60 is carried by lower respiratory infections [cause_id 322]) for 34 Asian countries from 1990 to 2023, aggregated into five GBD-defined subregions. Temporal trends were assessed using Joinpoint regression, and future burdens from 2024 to 2050 were projected using a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model with retrospective validation and sensitivity analysis. Estimates are reported as age-standardised rates per 100,000 population with 95% uncertainty or prediction intervals.
