Validation and Performance of Five Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding Prognostication Scores in a Single-Centre United Kingdom Cohort of over 1000 Patients

Objectives

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is a common medical emergency associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. Several clinical risk scores are available, but their comparative performance across outcomes and patient subgroups remains uncertain. We compared five established UGIB risk scores for predicting inpatient mortality and complications in a large United Kingdom (UK) cohort and evaluated performance according to bleeding aetiology and sex. We also explored the incremental prognostic value of body mass index (BMI).