Analysis of health risk factors in the petroleum and petrochemical industry: a comprehensive study based on the analytic hierarchy process and delphi method

ObjectiveThis study integrates the Delphi method with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to identify, refine, and prioritize occupational health risk factors in the petroleum and petrochemical industry. The aim is to construct a transparent sector-specific indicator hierarchy for decision support where complete and comparable plant-level data are not yet available.MethodsTwenty purposively selected experts completed two Delphi rounds. Importance was rated on a five-point scale and summarized using the mean and coefficient of variation (CV); qualitative comments were used to address conceptual overlap, measurability, and privacy concerns. Expert authority was calculated as Cr = (Ca + Cs)/2. After the indicator hierarchy was finalized, six senior experts from the original panel completed AHP pairwise comparisons. Priority weights and consistency ratios (CR) were calculated, with CR < 0.10 regarded as acceptable internal consistency.ResultsAll 20 experts completed both Delphi rounds. The mean expert authority coefficient was 0.813 (range 0.70–0.91). Four first-level and twelve second-level indicators were retained. Process safety risk received the highest first-level weight, followed by work environment risk, occupational behavior risk, and individual health status risk. Primary containment failure, physical hazards, and safety-system performance received the largest overall indicator weights. All AHP judgment matrices met the CR < 0.10 consistency criterion.ConclusionThe Delphi-AHP framework provides an expert-derived structure for prioritizing occupational health risks and linking them to site-level management actions. The weights are decision-support priorities rather than validated predictors of occupational illness or accidents. External validation with plant-level exposure, incident, and health-outcome data is required before broad regulatory or cross-company application.