International Journal of COPD
Global Co-Occurrence of COPD and Peripheral Artery Disease in Older Adults: A Machine Learning Analysis of Spatial Patterns and Population-Attributable Risks
By Shen Liu, Xuehong Jia, Tianxu Han and 4 others.
Abstract
Background
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and peripheral artery disease (PAD) significantly contribute to morbidity and mortality among older adults. The geographic co-occurrence may indicate shared exposures; however, global population-level evidence remains scarce.
Methods
Utilizing Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 estimates, the analysis focused on COPD and PAD incidence in adults aged ≥ 70 years across 202 countries and territories. Disease-specific incidence quartiles characterized spatial co-occurrence. Random forest models with SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) ranked exposure contributions, while negative binomial regression with population offsets estimated associations and population-attributable fractions (PAFs). A quartile-based composite risk index summarized cumulative exposure.
