Burden and trends of depressive disorders and selected cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic-related conditions in Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia, with forecasts for depressive disorders: a GBD 2023 analysis

Introduction Depressive disorders and cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic (CKM)-related conditions create substantial but distinct population burdens across Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia.Theory The CKM framework was used only to contextualize parallel burden comparisons; individual-level multimorbidity was not assessed.Method Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 estimates, we analysed incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for depressive disorders and eight selected CKM-related conditions in 29 countries from 1990–2023, estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs), and generated conditional autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasts for major depressive disorder (MDD) and dysthymia to 2040.Results In 2023, MDD had the highest age-standardized incidence rate (3,179.7/100,000), whereas ischemic heart disease (IHD) had the highest age-standardized prevalence and DALY rates (5,086.6 and 3,817.6/100,000). Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) increased fastest across all three age-standardized outcomes. MDD led incidence point estimates in all 29 countries. Forecast validation was limited for several MDD endpoints, and pre-pandemic sensitivity materially changed flat random-walk projections.Discussion Burden varies by metric, age, and geography; forecasts are conditional scenarios. The findings support context-specific service planning but do not establish individual-level depression-CKM interactions or intervention effects.