Shifting mosquito vector ecologies pose new risks for new stakeholders

Mosquito-borne infectious disease is a major cause of mortality and a significant economic burden worldwide. Variable regional and seasonal patterns make proactive intervention challenging. Here we introduce a machine learning approach trained on satellite and mosquito observational data, improving generalizability to sparse observations while retaining similar positive performance characteristics of models used in standard practice. We provide global estimates for Aedes habitability at high spatial resolution in five-year increments from 1970-2024. Mosquito ecologies appear to be shifting in regionally specific ways. Overall, we demonstrate a decrease in risk near the equator and an increase in risk in historically temperate climates including the United States, the European Union, and China. Despite this decrease in risk relative to historical averages, regions near the equator remain among the highest risk worldwide. Together, these results reflect an overall, marked expansion of the regions of the globe that support Aedes mosquitoes, and we observe an ongoing, linear increase in the global population at risk of contracting mosquito-borne disease. Mosquito-borne diseases, for example, malaria, Zika, and Dengue, remain among the most common causes of death worldwide. The most effective way to prevent these diseases from spreading is to prevent infected mosquitoes from biting people. As mosquitoes migrate around the globe over time, it is difficult to know where resources that prevent mosquito bites should be sent. Here we introduce an approach that can be used to predict where mosquitoes are most likely to live. Using this approach, we find that mosquito habitats are expanding both North and South, and, in particular, within the United States, the European Union, and China. These trends contribute to an increasing risk of mosquito-borne disease worldwide.