Spatial-temporal analysis of circulatory disease mortality and socioeconomic factors in Brazil

ABSTRACT Climate change and socioeconomic inequalities influence the spatial patterns of mortality from diseases of the circulatory system. This study analyzed the spatial autocorrelation of mortality rates from circulatory system diseases in Brazilian municipalities over the period from 1999 to 2022. We employed the Global Moran Index (GISA) and the Local Moran Index (LISA) to assess these patterns. In addition, we examined the relationship between mortality and various socioeconomic and environmental variables, including GDP per capita, population density, urbanization, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The findings reveal distinct spatial patterns over time, with a reduction in spatial autocorrelation and redistribution of cases, as well as marked variations in correlations with socioeconomic factors, especially GDP per capita and educational attainment. Stronger clustering was observed in the North and Northeast, regions with greater socioeconomic vulnerability. This study contributes to the understanding of the complex interplay between factors that drive climate change, in this study we utilized GHG emissions, and socioeconomic factors in public health, emphasizing the need for targeted policies that address regional inequalities and foster sustainable urban planning.