Abstract / Summary
In this paper, we present an analytical framework to examine the transmission dynamics of malaria outbreaks. The proposed modelling framework successfully captures the malaria outbreak in the Indian state of Madhya Pradesh. The sensitivity analysis discover that the malaria transmission dynamics is sensitive to seasonal and behavioral parameters, such as relative transmission factor, baseline mean temperature, phase shift of the temperature wave, and baseline human behavioral intervention. The number of infections amplifies as the relative transmission factor enhances. Initially, with an augmentation in the baseline mean temperature, the infections increase to attain a maxima. Then, any further increase in the baseline mean temperature causes the number of infections to decline. In addition, we discover that the coincidence of the peak of the temperature wave with monsoon months causes an augmentation in the number of infections. Besides, we found that an augmentation in baseline human intervention significantly reduces the number of infections.