Chinese Journal of Traumatology
Global burden, trends, and projections of tetanus for 2050: Based on the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study
By Tongying Liu, Menglong Liu, Guosheng Yang and 9 others.
Abstract
Purpose
This study explores long-term trends and epidemiological characteristics of the global burden of tetanus over the past 3 decades and projects its disease burden up to 2050, providing a comprehensive assessment of the global impact of tetanus.
Methods
The data of this study cover the period from 1990 to 2021, with projections made for 2050. Drawing on methodologies and findings of the Global Burden of Disease and Risk Factors Study 2021, employing key indicators such as prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years, years lived with disability, and years of life lost provides a detailed account of the global burden of tetanus. By utilizing the socio-demographic index (SDI) values across different global regions, along with decomposition analysis and the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model, this study further elucidated the epidemiological patterns of tetanus and projected its global disease burden up to 2050. Integrating sample data and prior knowledge of unknown parameters yields posterior distributions for further parameter inference. This study uses the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort and Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations packages in R for prediction and employs decomposition analysis to identify key factors influencing tetanus burden.
