Twenty-Year Trends in Malaria Epidemiology, Importation Dynamics, and Surveillance in Oman: A Retrospective National Surveillance Study

Background

Malaria remains a major vector-borne disease worldwide. Oman interrupted endemic malaria transmission in 2010, but imported infections and occasional locally acquired cases continue to require sustained surveillance. This study evaluated national malaria epidemiology and surveillance patterns across the complete 2005–2024 period. Materials and Methods: We conducted a retrospective observational analysis of aggregated malaria surveillance indicators reported by the Oman Ministry of Health and linked national surveillance sources. The analytical series comprised 20 consecutive annual observations (2005–2024). Indicators included Annual Parasite Incidence (API), Slide Positivity Rate (SPR), Annual Blood Examination Rate (ABER), blood slides examined, case origin, surveillance approach, Plasmodium species distribution, and 2024 governorate-level case counts. Descriptive analyses, linear temporal models, robust Poisson rate models, regression diagnostics with Newey–West sensitivity analyses, and a 2024 population-referenced geographic analysis were performed.