Diagnostics
Prediction of Six-Month Glycemic Status in Type 2 Diabetes: Development and Internal Validation of a Multivariable Model
Par Andreea Diana Igna, Bianca-Lăcrimioara Petca, Paula-Alexandra Popovici et 5 autres.
Contenu en anglais
Résumé
Background
Baseline HbA1c is expected to dominate prediction of subsequent HbA1c status; therefore, the clinically relevant question is whether additional routinely available variables provide reproducible incremental value.
Methods
This retrospective longitudinal study used 809 records from adults with type 2 diabetes receiving routine outpatient care. Six-month HbA1c was available for 808 participants. The primary outcome was six-month glycemic status (HbA1c < 7.0%). An HbA1c-only benchmark and three fixed blockwise logistic models were compared in the same complete-case cohort (n = 806). Internal validation used 1000 bootstrap resamples and reported optimism-corrected AUC, Brier score, calibration intercept, and calibration slope. Correlations, variance inflation factors (VIFs), nonlinear effects, decision-curve analysis, and a sensitivity analysis restricted to baseline HbA1c ≥ 7.0% were evaluated.