Predicting MCI-to-Alzheimer’s Conversion: A Systematic Benchmark of Classical, Machine Learning, and Deep Survival Models

Background/Objectives: Predicting time-to-conversion from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a critical clinical challenge. Most survival analyses rely on static baseline variables, ignoring the temporal dynamics of serial neuroimaging. We benchmark seven survival model families using a novel temporal MRI descriptor pipeline on ADNI.